In early October 2023, Pakistan’s caretaker government announced an “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan”, giving all undocumented foreigners in the country until November 1st to leave. While supposedly applying to all illegal immigrants, the plan appears designed to target Afghans, millions of whom have sought refuge in Pakistan over the decades. This deportation campaign risks precipitating a major humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region.
Background
- Pakistan hosts an estimated 3-4 million Afghan refugees and migrants. This includes:
- 1.3 million registered as legal refugees with Proof of Registration (PoR) cards
- 850,000 with Afghan Citizen Cards providing some protections
- 1.7+ million undocumented
- Many Afghans move back and forth freely across the porous mountainous border without paperwork.
- The latest influx was over 600,000 people fleeing after the Taliban takeover in August 2021.
| Category | Population |
|---|---|
| Registered PoR card refugees | 1.3 million |
| Afghan Citizen Card holders | 850,000 |
| Undocumented | 1.7+ million |
| Total | 3-4 million |
Deportation Campaign
- In Phase 1 starting November 1st, Pakistan targeted undocumented Afghans and those with fake papers or expired visas.
- Phases 2 and 3 may strip protections from Citizen Card holders and even registered PoR refugees.
- Pakistan set up deportation holding centers and hotlines to report illegal foreigners.
- Police have reportedly harassed or detained even registered refugees, destroying their cards and demanding bribes.
- Aid groups report 10,000 daily border crossings, up from 300 previously.
- Pakistan bars deportees from bringing more than 50,000 rupees cash or livestock. Many allege theft of property.
- Taliban authorities are overwhelmed receiving the influx as Afghanistan faces humanitarian crises from war, sanctions, earthquakes, and winter.
Motivations
- Pakistan’s main aim is to pressure the Taliban to crack down on the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group attacking Pakistan from Afghan bases.
- Relations deteriorated as the Taliban failed to restrain the TTP despite Pakistan’s long support for their cause.
- Pakistan previously tried closing borders, airstrikes in Afghanistan, and building border fences.
- Mass deportation is Islamabad’s most aggressive move yet to coerce Kabul on the TTP.
Consequences
For Afghanistan
- Taliban authorities are struggling to manage the influx with temporary camps and appeals for aid.
- Most deportees were plunged into poverty, forced to sell property and livestock cheaply before leaving Pakistan where many lived for decades.
- With few jobs and a shattered economy, survival will be difficult especially in harsh winter conditions in poor camps.
- Taliban restrictions on women’s rights compounds challenges for deportees.
- Desperation may drive some into criminality or joining militants like the TTP, ironically worsening Pakistan’s security problems.
For Pakistan
- The deportations may backfire if they destabilize Afghanistan further and drive more cross-border militancy.
- Forced returns violate international legal principles of non-refoulement for persecuted groups.
- Pakistan faces domestic and international criticism over the humanitarian crisis.
For the region
- The refugee crisis could prompt many Afghans to migrate irregularly toward Europe, Iran, or Turkey.
Recommendations
- Pakistan should immediately cancel the deportation plan and devise a gradual, lawful repatriation process with Afghanistan and the UNHCR.
- Foreign governments should pressure Pakistan to halt forced returns and sign a new agreement on extending refugee status.
- The Taliban must treat returnees humanely and avoid persecution of former opponents.
- Donor states should increase aid to support refugee assistance efforts in both countries.
- Western refugee resettlement programs should be expanded for at-risk Afghan refugees.
The forced removal of potentially millions of vulnerable Afghans by Pakistan requires urgent international attention to avert an enormous humanitarian catastrophe with far-reaching ramifications across South Asia and beyond. Constructive policies emphasizing human rights and regional stability are vital.
