The upcoming general elections in Pakistan scheduled for 2024 will prove pivotal in shaping the country’s political landscape. With the pika likely concluding in August 2023, campaigns will launch in early 2024 prior to the critical polls. This comprehensive analysis will examine key aspects of the 2024 elections from major political parties to economic implications.
Current Political Scenario
The 2018 elections saw Imran Khan elected Prime Minister with his PTI party forming a coalition government. However, political instability triggered the opposition to file a no-confidence motion in early 2022 leading to Imran Khan’s ouster. The current government consists of a diverse coalition led by PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif as PM.
- Infighting and shifting loyalties have led to uncertainty about which party formations will be long-lasting.
- Regional dynamics with former FATA territories merging with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province influences local political leanings.
- The economy remains strained which typically impacts the electorate’s views.
- Outcomes of the 2023 provincial elections will also factor into the national landscape.
As campaigns ramp up through 2023, political events and policy decisions will shape public opinion leading into the 2024 elections.
Key Political Parties
The two long-time leading national parties along with several regional and ideological-based parties will compete for influence in the 2024 elections.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
- Led by former PM Imran Khan on a vision of establishing a corruption-free welfare state.
- The PTI manifesto emphasizes economic reforms to lower debt and inflation while providing universal healthcare, education and justice access.
- After their abrupt early ouster from the previous government, expect PTI to attack current leadership as incompetent while touting achievements made during Khan’s term.
Table: PTI’s Electoral Performance Over Time
| Election Year | Seats Won | Vote Share % | Ruling Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 28 | 16.9% | Opposition |
| 2018 | 155 | 31.8% | Coalition Government |
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N)
- Headed by current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif with brother Nawaz Sharif controlling long-term strategy.
- Their center-left manifesto prioritizes economic growth through infrastructure expansion and public-private partnerships.
- Expect attacks on PTI’s handling of the economy and praise for their previous five-year term performance pre-2018. Regional loyalty in Punjab province gives PML-N an edge.
Table: PML-N Electoral Performance Over Time
| Election Year | Seats Won | Vote Share % | Ruling Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 166 | 32.8% | Government |
| 2018 | 84 | 24.4% | Opposition |
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
- Currently the second largest party in the ruling coalition led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Asif Ali Zardari.
- Their leftist manifesto supports social democracy, public sector strengthening and minority rights.
- PPP likely to campaign on populist promises while boasting their political experience compared to PTI’s failed governance.
- Maintain loyal base in Sindh province as advantage, but limited national appeal.
Table: PPP Electoral Performance Over Time
| Election Year | Seats Won | Vote Share % | Ruling Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 46 | 14.6% | Opposition |
| 2018 | 53 | 13.7% | Opposition |
In addition, ethnic-based parties like Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) with concentrated regional supporters will look to form coalition alliances with major parties. Religious parties like Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) have exhibited ability to mobilize support over single issues as well.
Potential Candidates
While official party nominations will come closer to the 2024 election, early indications predict these figures will compete for key leadership positions:
Table: Potential Candidacy by Party
| arty | Potential PM Candidates | Background and Public Reception |
|---|---|---|
| PTI | Imran Khan | Former cricket start and PM ousted by no-confidence motion in 2022. Still maintains widespread popular support especially with youth. Contested current government’s legitimacy through protests and rallies after his removal. Seen as competent leader hampered by coalition constraints. |
| PML-N | Shehbaz Sharif | Incumbent PM who oversaw PML-N growth in Punjab through infrastructure projects as former CM. Touts administrative experience but lacks his brother Nawaz’s charismatic appeal. Seen as politician representing the past system. |
| Maryam Nawaz | Daughter of Nawaz Sharif who leads PML-N social media engagement with passionate support from women and youth. Viewed as future face of party leadership. Strong speaker who attacks opponents forcefully. Association with family corruption allegations hinders wider support currently. | |
| PPP | Bilawal Bhutto | Young chairman of PPP trying to rebuild party’s national appeal. Pedigree as son of famous PM Benazir Bhutto garners sympathy but still seen as lacking genuine leadership credentials. Claims leftist mantle but hasn’t backed bold reforms when in power before. |
Electoral Reforms and Technology
In recent years, several reforms were passed to strengthen Pakistan’s electoral system and incorporate more technology.
Key changes impacting 2024 elections:
- Electronic voting machines (EVMs) piloted to address rigging concerns
- Overseas Pakistanis granted right to vote in upcoming elections
- Bill passed to hold senate and national elections jointly aligning terms
Digital trends also continue influencing voter decisions and political campaigning:
- Parties like PTI already leveraging social media engagement successfully
- Overdependence on online platforms gives advantage to parties with larger IT cells
- Spread of misinformation difficult to counter across fragmented platforms
- Credibility of online polls and projections remains questionable
While incremental improvements were enacted, additional reforms around campaign finance, media oversight and voting access would further enhance integrity and participation in the democratic process.
Public Opinion and Polls
Frequent survey data reveals insights into current public sentiment leading up to the 2024 campaign season:
- Imran Khan remains most popular leader at 64% approval beating Shehbaz Sharif at 41% nationally (Gallup 2022)
- Inflation cited as most urgent issue by 57% of respondents (Pulse Consultant)
- 63% hold favorable view of military while only 37% approve of government (IPOR Consulting)
But significant shifts in voter choices remain fluid as parties crisscross for rallies and nomination decisions get finalized when elections come nearer.
International Perspectives
Global powers maintain keen interest in Pakistani elections viewing the country as vital to regional stability. Key international dynamics around 2024 elections include:
- If PTI regains power, expect chilled relations with the US and improved ties with Russia, China
- International Monetary Fund deal requirements will limit the next government’s populist spending policies
- India fears PML-N soft stance on Kashmir but prefers their stability over PTI tensions
- Saudi, UAE likely to push for a conducive investment environment
- Belt and Road interests mean China will expand efforts to influence leadership preferences
At the UN and diplomatic forums, most countries will acknowledge results as long as elections are viewed as free and fair by domestic monitors.
Economic Implications
Historically, early-term governments pursuing structural reforms give way to later-term regimes focused on infrastructure and subsidies to woo voters.
Potential economic impacts based on 2024 results:
- PTI win could mean renewed privatization efforts and flexible currency policy
- PML-N favors large public transport projects and energy subsidies directed at Punjab
- PPP likely to expand Benazir Income Support Program and target inflation
- Coalition governments patchwork spending centered on coalition partners
Regardless of the outcome, the next government will need to balance short-term relief measures for struggling workers and fixed-income groups with long-term decisions to secure Pakistan’s debt repayment and investment environment stability.
Social Media and Political Campaigns
Given Pakistan’s increasing internet access and youth engagement online, social media holds a growing influence over electoral campaigns.
Parties already navigating modern voter contact strategies:
- PTI boasts over 15 million followers across platforms through viral content and strong branding
- Maryam Nawaz interacts directly with supporters through Twitter spaces and Instagram stories
- PPP leverages TikTok for short shareable videos and humorous political messaging
Expert projections expect digital election expenses to exceed 150 million USD concentrated on search, display ads, mass text blasts and targeted social content.
However, the underregulated nature of digital platforms allows murkier political disinformation tactics to spread as well. Mechanisms to verify online content credibility and enforce electoral codes of conduct are still developing.
Challenges and Opportunities
Concerns around election transparency, media freedom, and security threats continue plaguing recent election cycles. Notable issues include:
- Court rulings against defections between parties via horse-trading not fully enforced
- Women’s participation as candidates and voters requires additional protections
- Militant groups continue targeting campaigns to influence voter behavior
- Outdated census data prevents accurate delimitation acceptance
However, a peaceful transition of power following the 2024 elections could also revitalize economic momentum and boost Pakistan’s democratic credentials by showcasing:
- Expanded minority and youth engagement in political processes
- Innovative use of technology to increase voter access
- Merit-based civil services immune from political interference
- Local governance empowerment through decentralization
The 2024 elections provide risks from destabilizing forces but also optimism if leveraged to advance representation, pluralism, and governance reforms central to Pakistan’s vision.
Historical Context
Pakistan’s past election outcomes showcase the pendulum swings from national two-party domination during the 1990s to regional and coalition rule in the 2000s.
- The 1990 and 1993 elections consolidated PPP and PML-N respectively with over two-thirds majority amidst accusations of establishment backing
- After Musharraf’s coup, the 2008 elections brought PPP into power until PML-N regained control in 2013
- The 2018 elections mark PTI’s national rise under Imran Khan followed by early downfall and ongoing realignment
This pattern indicates the personalized nature of party power concentrated around influential political family dynasties. Criticisms around electoral engineering by non-democratic centers of power alsorecurrently the surface.
Pakistan’s historic ethnic tensions, security threats, and civil-military distrust impact election environments as well. Allegations of pre-poll rigging and irregularities continue to plague most election cycles.
Yet the unprecedented disqualification of an incumbent prime minister in 2017 and subsequent democratic transfer of power sparked hopes. Sustaining fair electoral processes free of political vendettas offers Pakistan its best chance towards stable democratic continuity looking ahead.
